Holt – Australia 2025

@Nimalan, there was a theory that for a party to win a landslide is through making inroads with the newly realigned voting block without sacrificing the current traditional voters for the party, Albanese managed to get these two recipes right that led to a Labor Landslide this year (making further inroads with highly educated white collar voters without bleeding the traditional working class voting block) which might be also apply for the same reason with Tony Abbott winning in a landslide in 2013 (making further inroads with white working class without bleeding somewhat fiscally conservative but Socially Moderate Upper Middle Class). If both parties made inroads but bleed voting blocks at the same time, the elections would always remain close with only at most narrow majorities.

@ Marh
I agree with your first point. At its best a party keeps its traditional voting base and wins a new cohort. Howard won Hughes and Lindsay in 1996 which were the two surprises while Tony Abbott won Reid, Barton and Banks in 2013 which Howard did not (2013 version of Reid was a combo of Lowe and parts of the 1996 Reid). My question is really this what is the path to government for the Libs even if it is just a bare minimum 76 without winning Teal seats, Ryan, Boothby, Sturt Brisbane and Mayo all seats that Tony Abbott won in 2013. Even if Libs just win a narrow majority of 76 or 75 Plus Dai Le.

I think the Coalition winning most of their 2013 holdings (swing seats like Robertson and Reid), ethnically white majority seats in outer suburban and regional areas (seats like Whitlam, Werriwa and Hunter) which they didn’t win in 2013 and a few marginal teal seats (Mackellar, Kooyong and Bradfield) would be enough to secure a narrow majority in conjunction with winning back all of their upset losses in 2025 (e.g. Hughes, Banks, Petrie and Forde).

This would have to be a 2-term strategy, with the priority to win back most of their 2025 losses first and then go after the other seats in 2031 – unless Labor stumbles badly by 2028.

@ Yon An
Further to @Marh point in the US both parties have bled vote due to realignment so it has been in essence a zero sum game. So if the Libs make inroads among blue collar voters in lieu of better educated voters in Teal seats, Boothby etc they can hope for a bare minimum majority. I concede Whitlam, Werriwa and Hunter will be targetted more by Libs in the future and maybe there next 2013 style landslide those seats will be picked up along with maybe Hawke/Holt but even your path you mentioned 3 currently Teal seats what is the path without those 3 if there were to be a complete realignment.

@Nimalan, I wonder if the election landslides for Ronald Reagan (in his case almost every state) and to a lesser extent Bill Clinton (he won states that are today deeply Republican) is really the last elections that are truely Landslides by winning (or made heavy inroads) in every major voting block?

@ Marh
I agree Ronald Reagon and George H.W Bush in 1988 did very well across a variety of demographics pretty much all except Blacks. Ronald Reagon was the first who made inroads into White Working voters Reagan many of whom were Catholics/White Ethnics. Bill Clinton was the last real White Southern Democrat to hold office. Obama did well among White working class voters in the Midwest but is presidency led to to the final extinction of the White Southern Democrats especially in the Senate. Even if the Democrats oneday nominated another White Southern Democrat like Jon Ossof while he may indeed win the Presidency i think he will narrowly carry Georgia due to minority votes but probably will not pick up many other Southern states except possibly North Carolina/Florida (narrowly) but that is still much less then Bill Clinton did in the 1990s

Another imporant point is that Obama has the same popular vote margin as George H.W Bush in 1998 but won far fewer states.

@Marh the last for US presidential elections sure but not globally or even in the US.

Even looking at just when Trump has been the candidate the only state he won in 2024 that he didn’t win in 2016 was Nevada. Latino voters are pretty evenly split between Democrat and Republican voters. In the US, Whites (European descent) lean Republican while Blacks, Asians, Arabs and others are heavily Democrat. Native Americans traditionally vote Democrat but have trended more Republican in recent years similar to Indigenous Australians, though only Alaska compares to the Northern Territory in terms of indigenous populations.

In the US too it should be noted that the political map of the Lower 48 in terms of states only shows two Democrat-voting regions: the Northeast and the West Coast, with the only exceptions being Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota and New Mexico. Every other Democrat state borders each other and every other Republican state borders each other.

@Yoh An
“This would have to be a 2-term strategy, with the priority to win back most of their 2025 losses first and then go after the other seats in 2031 – unless Labor stumbles badly by 2028.”
Liberals were tracking okay Christmas 2029, have lost 35 seats since.
Labor need interest rates to fall, which only accelerates inflation.
So, unless they bite the bullet, Inflation will be running wild by 2028 and they haven’t a hope, imo.